Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 42.66%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 29.29% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (10.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.