Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 56.94%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 19.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.09%) and 1-2 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 1-0 (6.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.