Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 68.82%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 13.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 1-0 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.26%), while for a Famalicao win it was 1-2 (3.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.