Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 70.8%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 10%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.65%) and 3-0 (9.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.84%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (4.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.