Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 30.96% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.33%) and 0-2 (7.82%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 (10.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.