Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 39.41%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 31.93% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.96%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (11.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tondela would win this match.