Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 42.8%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 28.81% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.45%) and 1-2 (8.31%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Tondela | Draw | Portimonense |
| 28.81% | 28.39% | 42.8% |
| Both teams to score 44.92% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.01% | 60.99% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.01% | 80.99% |
| Tondela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.59% | 37.41% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.8% | 74.19% |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.77% | 28.23% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.06% | 63.94% |
| Score Analysis |
| Tondela | Draw | Portimonense |
| 1-0 @ 10.38% 2-1 @ 6.46% 2-0 @ 5.11% 3-1 @ 2.12% 3-0 @ 1.67% 3-2 @ 1.34% Other @ 1.74% Total : 28.8% | 1-1 @ 13.13% 0-0 @ 10.56% 2-2 @ 4.08% Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.38% | 0-1 @ 13.35% 0-2 @ 8.45% 1-2 @ 8.31% 0-3 @ 3.56% 1-3 @ 3.5% 2-3 @ 1.72% 0-4 @ 1.13% 1-4 @ 1.11% Other @ 1.68% Total : 42.79% |