Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Tula win with a probability of 39.86%. A win for Rostov had a probability of 33.1% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Tula win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Rostov win was 0-1 (9.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.