Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 41.87%. A draw had a probability of 30.7% and a win for Castellon had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.79%) and 2-1 (7.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.95%), while for a Castellon win it was 0-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Girona would win this match.