Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lecce win with a probability of 40.11%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 34.38% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lecce win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.67%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest SPAL win was 1-0 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lecce would win this match.
