Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 46.52%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 28.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.27%) and 0-2 (8.14%). The likeliest SPAL win was 1-0 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood.