Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lecce win with a probability of 41.46%. A win for Venezia had a probability of 32.08% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lecce win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Venezia win was 1-0 (9.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lecce would win this match.