Supercopa de Espana | Semi-Finals
Jan 13, 2022 at 7pm UK
Vicente Calderon Stadium
Atletico1 - 2Athletic Bilbao
We said: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Athletic Bilbao (Atletico Madrid to win 2-1 in extra-time)
A closely-fought contest between two evenly-matched sides, who could not be separated earlier this campaign, is set to be played out on Thursday with the tie potentially going beyond the 90 minutes. The two teams will almost be at full strength in Saudi Arabia; however, the return of Suarez and Gimenez for Atletico Madrid may give them the slight edge to advance to the final. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.85%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 21.16%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (8.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 0-1 (9.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 50.85% | 27.99% | 21.16% |
| Both teams to score 39.87% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
