Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alverca win with a probability of 58.02%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Pero Pinheiro had a probability of 17.59%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alverca win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.96%) and 2-1 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for a Pero Pinheiro win it was 0-1 (6.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alverca would win this match.