Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 49.94%. A win for Desna Chernihiv had a probability of 26.05% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Desna Chernihiv win was 0-1 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shakhtar Donetsk would win this match.