It is derby day in the A-League this Saturday as Western Sydney Wanderers meet Sydney FC in the Elimination Final.
It is a must-win knockout match with a place in the semi-finals at stake for the winner, with Melbourne City already waiting in the wings.
Match preview
Western Sydney Wanderers ended the main season in forgettable fashion after being defeated 3-2 by Melbourne City, and the main takeaway from that game will have been the need to concentrate until the end.
Despite goals from Brandon Borrello and Nicolas Milanovic, the team conceded in the 93rd minute to lose the match which they cannot afford this time around.
Marko Rudan's men did have a slightly stronger season overall than their opponents which is reflected by the fact they finished one place and three points ahead of them.
However, there was nothing to split them when it came to their meetings in this campaign as they have one victory each during those.
Western Sydney Wanderers did dominate their most recent match, though, with a 4-0 win while the reverse fixture was a much tighter 1-0 loss, proving that they might have a slight advantage in terms of confidence.
The visitors have been undefeated since they last faced this weekend's opponents, though, showcasing their ability to respond which has built some real momentum.
Sydney FC won their previous two matches 2-0 and the clean sheets are something that the team will be desperate to bring into this knockout match.
However, they will go into the game without Jaiden Kucharski after he was sent off in the final game of the season against Newcastle Jets.
Throughout the campaign, Sydney FC scored fewer and conceded more goals than their local rivals and that is something that they will want to put to one side here.
With this marking the first ever Sydney derby in the finals series it is sure to make a historic encounter no matter what, and both teams will be aiming to leave with the bragging rights.
Team News
Gabriel Cleur and Alex Bonetig have both been promoted into the matchday squad for Western Sydney Wanderers ahead of this weekend, adding to the squad depth for this match.
Borrello has been key to everything that Rudan's squad has achieved this season and his attacking qualities will be heavily relied upon in this one.
The visitors will be without Kucharski due to suspension, but considering the fact he did not start the previous match anyway it might not have the biggest impact to plans for the starting XI.
Robert Mak was rested last weekend but he has been brought back into the Sydney FC squad for this match, while Jack Rodwell is also back and available from injury.
There were concerns for Joe Lolley going into this game as well after he had to be brought off due to a niggle last time out, but it is expected that he will be able to be involved in some capacity.
Western Sydney Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Thomas; Cleur, Mrcela, Marcelo, Traore; Amalfitano, Nieuwenhof; Wilmering, Bozanic, Ngbakoto; Borrello
Sydney FC possible starting lineup:
Redmayne; Grant, Rodwell, Wilkinson, King; Mak, Brattan, Caceres; Lolley, Le Fondre, Burgess
We say: Western Sydney Wanderers 2-1 Sydney FC
In knockout football, anything can happen but it is Western Sydney Wanderers who have had the strongest campaign and they are likely to have just enough to push into the next round.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western Sydney Wanderers win with a probability of 39.46%. A win for Sydney FC had a probability of 36.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western Sydney Wanderers win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.93%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Sydney FC win was 1-2 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
