Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western Sydney Wanderers win with a probability of 52.84%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 25.16% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western Sydney Wanderers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.66%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Western Sydney Wanderers would win this match.