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EFL Cup
Southampton logo
EFL Cup | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Jan 24, 2023 at 8pm UK
St. Mary's Stadium
Newcastle logo

Southampton
0 - 1
Newcastle


Caleta-Car (28'), Alcaraz (37'), Walker-Peters (44'), Lyanco (84'), Salisu (90+5')
Caleta-Car (86')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Joelinton (73')
Trippier (70'), Saint-Maximin (84'), Guimaraes (86')

The Match

Match Report

Newcastle United defeat Southampton 1-0 in the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final, taking a slender lead into the second leg next Tuesday night.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Southampton and Newcastle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Southampton 0-1 Aston Villa
Saturday, January 21 at 3pm in Premier League

Newcastle United

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Crystal Palace 0-0 Newcastle
Saturday, January 21 at 5.30pm in Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 48.82%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 26.82% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.51%) and 0-2 (8.19%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-0 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Newcastle United in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Newcastle United.

Result
SouthamptonDrawNewcastle United
26.82% (-2.985 -2.99) 24.36% (0.208 0.21) 48.82% (2.777 2.78)
Both teams to score 55.53% (-2.904 -2.9)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.38% (-2.831 -2.83)46.62% (2.833 2.83)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.11% (-2.714 -2.71)68.89% (2.714 2.71)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.69% (-3.607 -3.61)31.31% (3.608 3.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.33% (-4.405 -4.41)67.66% (4.405 4.41)
Newcastle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.84% (0.018000000000001 0.02)19.16% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.18% (0.030000000000001 0.03)50.82% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Southampton 26.82%
    Newcastle United 48.82%
    Draw 24.36%
SouthamptonDrawNewcastle United
1-0 @ 6.97% (0.147 0.15)
2-1 @ 6.68% (-0.545 -0.55)
2-0 @ 4.05% (-0.332 -0.33)
3-1 @ 2.59% (-0.506 -0.51)
3-2 @ 2.14% (-0.416 -0.42)
3-0 @ 1.57% (-0.307 -0.31)
Other @ 2.83%
Total : 26.82%
1-1 @ 11.51% (0.25 0.25)
0-0 @ 6% (0.686 0.69)
2-2 @ 5.52% (-0.447 -0.45)
3-3 @ 1.18% (-0.229 -0.23)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 24.36%
0-1 @ 9.91% (1.139 1.14)
1-2 @ 9.51% (0.21 0.21)
0-2 @ 8.19% (0.944 0.94)
1-3 @ 5.24% (0.118 0.12)
0-3 @ 4.51% (0.523 0.52)
2-3 @ 3.04% (-0.245 -0.25)
1-4 @ 2.16% (0.05 0.05)
0-4 @ 1.86% (0.217 0.22)
2-4 @ 1.26% (-0.1 -0.1)
Other @ 3.14%
Total : 48.82%

How you voted: Southampton vs Newcastle

Southampton
19.9%
Draw
14.4%
Newcastle United
65.7%
216
Head to Head
Nov 6, 2022 2pm
Southampton
1-4
Newcastle
Perraud (89')
Lavia (75')
Almiron (35'), Wood (58'), Willock (62'), Guimaraes (90+1')
Mar 10, 2022 7.30pm
Southampton
1-2
Newcastle
Armstrong (25')
Bednarek (72')
Wood (32'), Guimaraes (52')
Murphy (16')
Aug 28, 2021 3pm
Newcastle
2-2
Southampton
Wilson (55'), Saint-Maximin (90')
Schar (40'), Lascelles (90+5')
Elyounoussi (74'), Ward-Prowse (90+6' pen.)
Walker-Peters (30'), Djenepo (56'), Ward-Prowse (79')
Feb 6, 2021 3pm
Newcastle
3-2
Southampton
Willock (16'), Almiron (26', 45+4')
Hendrick (11'), Krafth (45+3')
Hendrick (50')
Minamino (30'), Ward-Prowse (48')
Bednarek (73')
Nov 6, 2020 8pm
Southampton
2-0
Newcastle
Adams (7'), Armstrong (82')
Romeu (27')

Fernandez (43'), Longstaff (90')
rhs 2.0
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