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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 84.71%. A draw had a probability of 11% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 4.29%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.55%) and 1-0 (10.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.17%), while for a Heracles win it was 0-1 (1.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heracles |
84.71% | 10.99% | 4.29% |
Both teams to score 36.67% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.79% | 36.21% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.66% | 58.34% |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.87% | 6.13% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
76.75% | 23.25% |
Heracles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
39.07% | 60.93% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
8.88% | 91.12% |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heracles |
2-0 @ 14.56% 3-0 @ 13.55% 1-0 @ 10.43% 4-0 @ 9.46% 2-1 @ 7.22% 3-1 @ 6.72% 5-0 @ 5.29% 4-1 @ 4.69% 5-1 @ 2.62% 6-0 @ 2.46% 3-2 @ 1.66% 6-1 @ 1.22% 4-2 @ 1.16% 7-0 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.69% Total : 84.7% | 1-1 @ 5.17% 0-0 @ 3.74% 2-2 @ 1.79% Other @ 0.3% Total : 10.99% | 0-1 @ 1.85% 1-2 @ 1.28% Other @ 1.16% Total : 4.29% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |