Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 71.94%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 10.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.8%) and 3-0 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.39%), while for an Almeria win it was 0-1 (3.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Almeria |
71.94% ( 0.27) | 17.66% ( -0.14) | 10.4% ( -0.13) |
Both teams to score 45.38% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.25% ( 0.23) | 43.75% ( -0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.86% ( 0.22) | 66.14% ( -0.22) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.2% ( 0.13) | 10.8% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
65.17% ( 0.3) | 34.83% ( -0.29) |
Almeria Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.87% ( -0.11) | 49.13% ( 0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.95% ( -0.08) | 84.05% ( 0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Almeria |
2-0 @ 13.14% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 11.8% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 9.75% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 6.93% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 5.43% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 3.86% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.46% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.42% ( 0.04) 5-1 @ 1.72% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.72% Total : 71.93% | 1-1 @ 8.39% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.3% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 3.32% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.65% Total : 17.66% | 0-1 @ 3.77% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 2.98% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.31% Total : 10.4% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 34 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 74 | 22 | 52 | 87 |
2 | GironaGirona | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 73 | 42 | 31 | 74 |
3 | Barcelona | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 70 | 43 | 27 | 73 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 34 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 63 | 39 | 24 | 67 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 61 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 48 | 35 | 13 | 54 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 34 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 43 | 39 | 4 | 52 |
8 | Valencia | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 47 |
9 | Villarreal | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 56 | 58 | -2 | 45 |
10 | Getafe | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 43 |
11 | AlavesAlaves | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 41 |
12 | Sevilla | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 41 |
13 | Osasuna | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 37 | 51 | -14 | 39 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 37 |
15 | Celta Vigo | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 34 |
16 | Rayo Vallecano | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 34 |
17 | Mallorca | 34 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 32 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 34 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 23 | 49 | -26 | 26 |
19 | Granada | 34 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 36 | 64 | -28 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 34 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 17 |
> La Liga Full Table |