Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 64.53%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 15.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.06%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.66%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (4.73%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.
Result | ||
Toulouse | Draw | Troyes |
64.53% ( 0.12) | 20.33% ( -0.03) | 15.14% ( -0.09) |
Both teams to score 50.69% ( -0.1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.78% ( -0.02) | 44.22% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.41% ( -0.02) | 66.6% ( 0.02) |
Toulouse Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.04% ( 0.03) | 12.96% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.56% ( 0.06) | 39.44% ( -0.06) |
Troyes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.24% ( -0.13) | 41.76% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.77% ( -0.12) | 78.23% ( 0.12) |
Score Analysis |
Toulouse | Draw | Troyes |
2-0 @ 11.29% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 11.06% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.87% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 7.7% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.72% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.93% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.43% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.61% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.5% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.4% ( 0) Other @ 3.08% Total : 64.52% | 1-1 @ 9.66% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.41% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.96% Total : 20.33% | 0-1 @ 4.73% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.22% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.66% Total : 15.14% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 31 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 76 | 29 | 47 | 70 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 61 |
3 | Brest | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 58 |
4 | Lille | 32 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 55 |
5 | Nice | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 54 |
6 | Lens | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 34 | 8 | 49 |
7 | Lyon | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 47 |
8 | Rennes | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 51 | 43 | 8 | 45 |
9 | Marseille | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 44 |
10 | Reims | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 41 |
11 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 40 |
12 | Toulouse | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 40 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 36 |
14 | NantesNantes | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 63 | -26 | 26 |
18 | Clermont | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |