After both returning to winning ways last time out, New York City FC and Orlando City face off at the Yankee Stadium looking to make it back-to-back victories.
The visitors head into Sunday's meeting in Bronx with a five-point cushion over their hosts, who are three places down below in fifth.
Match preview
© Reuters
New York City FC picked up a third home win on the bounce courtesy of a narrow 1-0 triumph over CF Montreal on Thursday.
Ismael Tajouri scored the only goal of the contest just before the half-hour mark to hand his side a much-needed victory off the back of two consecutive losses away from home.
As a result, Ronny Deila's men have leapfrogged city rivals New York Red Bulls into seventh place on the Eastern Conference standings.
The Pigeons now prepare for the visit of an Orlando City side against whom they have struggled in recent encounters involving the teams.
Sunday's hosts have failed to defeat the away side in any of the last eight clashes, with their last win coming back in 2018.
© Reuters
Orlando City put an end to a three-game winless streak by defeating Philadelphia Union 2-1 at the Exploria Stadium on Friday.
Goals in either half from Benji Michel and Andres Perea set Oscar Pareja's men on course for all three points, but their task was made a bit nervy by Kacper Przybylko's strike with a quarter of the contest remaining.
Courtesy of that victory, the Lions climbed into second place in the Eastern Conference, five points adrift of New England Revolution with a game in hand.
10 of the 14 goals conceded by Sunday's visitors have come away from home, and they will be wary of another frail defensive display on the road.
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
The trio of Sean Johnson, James Sands and Gedion Zelalem are representing the United States at the ongoing Gold Cup and are unavailable for the clash.
Heber continues his spell on the sidelines after picking up a knee injury which has ruled him out of action for the past ten months.
Brazilian forward Alexandre Pato sustained a knee problem on his Orlando City debut in April and has not featured since.
The visitors will also have to cope with the absence of Ruan, who came down with an abdominal strain in the last meeting between Sunday's opponents.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Barraza; Tinnerholm, Channot, Callens, Thorarinsson; Morales, Acevedo, Medina; Moralez, Tajouri, Castellanos
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Moutinho, Smith, Schlegel, Jansson; Perea, Rosell, Pereyra; Mueller, Michel, Nani
We say: New York City FC 2-1 Orlando City
The onus is more on the hosts to seize the initiative and claim all three points against a more in-form away side. We are backing New York City FC to rise up to the challenge and come out triumphant, albeit by only a narrow margin.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 56.84%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Orlando City had a probability of 20.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.9%) and 2-0 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Orlando City win it was 0-1 (5.79%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
