Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 52.23%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 23.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.65%) and 0-2 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 1-0 (6.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
Result | ||
Nottingham Forest | Draw | Newcastle United |
23.46% ( 0.59) | 24.3% ( -0.05) | 52.23% ( -0.53) |
Both teams to score 52.36% ( 0.85) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.78% ( 0.78) | 49.21% ( -0.78) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.72% ( 0.7) | 71.27% ( -0.7) |
Nottingham Forest Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.48% ( 0.97) | 35.51% ( -0.97) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.72% ( 0.99) | 72.28% ( -0.99) |
Newcastle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.19% ( 0.09) | 18.81% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.76% ( 0.15) | 50.23% ( -0.15) |
Score Analysis |
Nottingham Forest | Draw | Newcastle United |
1-0 @ 6.92% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 5.98% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 3.58% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 1.73% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.06) Other @ 1.96% Total : 23.46% | 1-1 @ 11.55% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.68% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0.13) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.3% | 0-1 @ 11.16% ( -0.32) 1-2 @ 9.65% ( 0) 0-2 @ 9.32% ( -0.25) 1-3 @ 5.38% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 5.19% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.08) 1-4 @ 2.25% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 2.17% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.17% Total : 52.23% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Arsenal | 36 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 88 | 28 | 60 | 83 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 35 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 87 | 33 | 54 | 82 |
3 | Liverpool | 36 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 81 | 38 | 43 | 78 |
4 | Aston Villa | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 73 | 53 | 20 | 67 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 35 | 18 | 6 | 11 | 69 | 58 | 11 | 60 |
6 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 35 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 78 | 56 | 22 | 56 |
7 | Chelsea | 35 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 70 | 59 | 11 | 54 |
8 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 35 | 16 | 6 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 54 |
9 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 70 | -14 | 49 |
10 | Bournemouth | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 52 | 63 | -11 | 48 |
11 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 35 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 53 | 57 | -4 | 47 |
12 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 36 | 13 | 7 | 16 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 46 |
13 | Fulham | 36 | 12 | 8 | 16 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 44 |
14 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 43 |
15 | Everton | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 37 |
16 | Brentford | 36 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 52 | 60 | -8 | 36 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 36 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 45 | 63 | -18 | 29 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 36 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 49 | 78 | -29 | 26 |
19 | Burnley | 36 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 24 |
R | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 36 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 35 | 100 | -65 | 16 |
> Premier League Full Table |