Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 54.13%. A win for Braga had a probability of 23.8% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.25%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Braga win was 1-2 (6.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Benfica in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Braga |
54.13% ( 0) | 22.06% ( -0) | 23.8% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 60.28% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.08% ( 0) | 38.92% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.76% ( 0) | 61.23% ( -0.01) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.59% ( 0) | 14.4% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.68% ( 0.01) | 42.31% ( -0.01) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.42% ( -0) | 29.57% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.4% ( -0) | 65.6% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Braga |
2-1 @ 9.74% 1-0 @ 8.25% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8% 3-1 @ 6.29% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.16% 3-2 @ 3.83% 4-1 @ 3.05% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.5% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.86% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.18% 5-0 @ 0.97% Other @ 3.29% Total : 54.13% | 1-1 @ 10.05% 2-2 @ 5.94% 0-0 @ 4.26% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.56% Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.05% | 1-2 @ 6.13% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.19% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.16% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.49% 2-3 @ 2.41% 0-3 @ 1.28% Other @ 3.15% Total : 23.8% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 32 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 22 |
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