Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 62.85%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 15.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.63%) and 1-2 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.17%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Chaves | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
15.75% ( 0.7) | 21.4% ( 0.62) | 62.85% ( -1.32) |
Both teams to score 48.68% ( -0.32) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.35% ( -1.29) | 47.65% ( 1.29) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.15% ( -1.2) | 69.85% ( 1.2) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.97% ( 0.16) | 43.03% ( -0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.68% ( 0.14) | 79.32% ( -0.14) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.45% ( -0.82) | 14.55% ( 0.82) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.4% ( -1.6) | 42.6% ( 1.6) |
Score Analysis |
Chaves | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 4.29% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 1.21% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.58% Total : 15.75% | 1-1 @ 10.17% ( 0.28) 0-0 @ 6.26% ( 0.33) 2-2 @ 4.14% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.83% Total : 21.4% | 0-1 @ 12.07% ( 0.3) 0-2 @ 11.63% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 9.81% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 7.47% ( -0.26) 1-3 @ 6.3% ( -0.19) 0-4 @ 3.6% ( -0.24) 1-4 @ 3.04% ( -0.19) 2-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.07) 0-5 @ 1.39% ( -0.14) 2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.07) 1-5 @ 1.17% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.43% Total : 62.84% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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