Famalicao have kept things tight at the back so far this season, with Sousa's side yet to concede more than one goal in a game, so we do not expect the game to be a high-scoring affair.
Arouca have not been in the best of form, failing to win in their last five games, but they have a very good recent record against Fama, so we think the spoils will be shared on Friday night.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 48.91%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 25.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.26%) and 2-1 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (8.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Famalicao in this match.
Basso (66' pen.), Miguel Pereira Da Silva (89') Manuel da Silva Moreira (57'), Miguel Pereira Da Silva (77'), Correa dos Santos (90+2'), Filipe Alves Araujo (90+5')
Rodrigues (23') Jose Gomes Oliveira Tavares (31'), Batubinsika (47'), Miguel Lapa Ricardo (79'), Assuncao (90+3')
-0.01) 
0.01) 
