Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 75.79%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 8.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.05%) and 3-0 (10.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.45%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (3.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Famalicao |
75.79% ( 0.81) | 15.67% ( -0.29) | 8.53% ( -0.52) |
Both teams to score 44.62% ( -1.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.46% ( -0.42) | 40.54% ( 0.42) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.07% ( -0.43) | 62.92% ( 0.43) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.98% ( 0.08) | 9.02% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
69.29% ( 0.2) | 30.71% ( -0.21) |
Famalicao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
49.04% ( -1.45) | 50.96% ( 1.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.69% ( -1) | 85.31% ( 0.99) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Famalicao |
2-0 @ 13.29% ( 0.35) 1-0 @ 11.05% ( 0.25) 3-0 @ 10.66% ( 0.32) 2-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 7.19% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.22) 4-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 3.09% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.13) 5-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.07) 6-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.58% Total : 75.77% | 1-1 @ 7.45% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.18) Other @ 0.6% Total : 15.67% | 0-1 @ 3.1% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 2.51% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 1.04% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.88% Total : 8.53% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 92 | 29 | 63 | 84 |
2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 39 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 6 | 17 | 9 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 35 |
11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 48 | 55 | -7 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 32 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 34 | 69 | -35 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 68 | -37 | 23 |
R | Vizela | 32 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 22 |
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