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Preview: Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Saturday's US Open final between Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka, including predictions, head-to-head record and their tournament so far.

A new queen of New York will be crowned on Saturday, as home favourite Coco Gauff and second seed Aryna Sabalenka square off in the US Open women's singles final.

Gauff reached her maiden Flushing Meadows showpiece with a disrupted straight-sets victory over Karolina Muchova, while her Belarusian opponent completed a miraculous turnaround to defeat Madison Keys in three sets.


Match preview

Coco Gauff reacts at the US Open on September 7, 2023© Reuters

Pre-match fears materialised for Gauff during her semi-final showdown with Czech 10th seed Muchova, as play was delayed by almost 50 minutes due to climate protestors - a disruption which the American claimed she had envisioned happening at some point during the final major of the year.

By that point, the 19-year-old had already staved off a brief Muchova fightback to win the first set at Arthur Ashe Stadium, where the crowd was treated to a few sensational rallies between the two players, as Gauff broke to love while Muchova was serving to stay in the opener.

More mistakes from the Czech's racquet saw Gauff break for a 5-3 lead, but the American failed to serve out the semi-final and saw a quintet of match-point opportunities pass her by, before getting over the line on the sixth attempt in a hard-fought 6-4 7-5 victory.

Impressively winning 67% of points behind her second serve and hitting 25 unforced errors compared to Muchova's 36, a first US Open final now awaits the Florida native, whose only previous appearance in a Grand Slam showpiece ended in defeat to Iga Swiatek at the 2022 French Open.

Gauff's run to the headline match has been far from a cakewalk too, as Russian sensation Mirra Andreeva, former French Open winner Jelena Ostapenko and the returning Caroline Wozniacki all tried in vain to send the teenager packing, but an even more formidable foe now stands in her way of stardom.

Aryna Sabalenka reacts at the US Open on September 6, 2023© Reuters

Following Gauff's protestor-affected success over Muchova, compatriot Madison Keys was well on her way to setting up a tantalising final with the sixth seed, securing the unlikeliest of bagels against an off-colour Sabalenka and leading by a break twice in the second set.

The Belarusian - who had reached the final four without dropping a set - memorably lost to Muchova in this year's French Open semi-finals due to a catalogue of mistakes, and a similar tale was unfolding on the Arthur Ashe surface, where Keys also did herself a favour with plenty of winners.

The 17th seed even held a 5-3 lead in the second set, but she was broken to love while serving for the match and also failed to build on an early break in the winner-takes-all third set, where Sabalenka's tie-breaker prowess came to the fore in an eventual 0-6 7-6[1] 7-6[5] success.

Silencing the crowd and then some with her astounding recovery, Sabalenka - who hit 12 aces over the course of the match - brought up 50 wins for the 2023 season, while she also became just the third woman to reach a Grand Slam final in the Open Era after losing the first set of their semi-final 6-0.

Steffi Graf (1992 French Open) and Ana Ivanovic (2008 Australian Open) are the only previous players to reach a major women's singles final in such circumstances, but having been denied an all-American showpiece with Keys, Gauff has all the motivation she needs to spoil Sabalenka's world number one coronation.


Tournament so far

Coco Gauff:

First round: vs. Laura Siegemund 3-6 6-2 6-4
Second round: vs. Mirra Andreeva 6-3 6-2
Third round: vs. Elise Mertens 3-6 6-3 6-0
Round of 16: vs. Caroline Wozniacki 6-3 3-6 6-1
Quarter-final: vs. Jelena Ostapenko 6-0 6-2
Semi-final: vs. Karolina Muchova 6-4 7-5

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Maryna Zanevska 6-3 6-2
Second round: vs. Jodie Burrage 6-3 6-2
Third round: vs. Clara Burel 6-1 6-1
Round of 16: vs. Daria Kasatkina 6-1 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Zheng Qinwen 6-1 6-4
Semi-final: vs. Madison Keys 0-6 7-6[1] 7-6[5]


Head To Head

Top Seed Open (2020) - Second round: Gauff wins 7-6[4] 4-6 6-4
Ostrava Open (2020) - Second round: Sabalenka wins 1-6 7-5 7-6[2]
Italian Open (2021) - Third round: Gauff wins 7-5 6-3
Canadian Open (2022) - Third round: Gauff wins 7-5 4-6 7-6[4]
Indian Wells Masters (2023) - Quarter-finals: Sabalenka wins 6-4 6-0

Since Gauff's emergence onto the WTA tour, the American has often crossed paths with Sabalenka at the top level - meeting five times in total since 2020 - and the 19-year-old leads the way in the head-to-head category with three victories to two.

At the 2020 Top Seed Open, a 16-year-old Gauff beat Sabalenka in round two and also bested Ons Jabeur before losing to eventual winner Jennifer Brady, but the Belarusian avenged that loss with a three-set win at the Ostrava Open later that year.

A trio of Masters clashes followed, with Gauff winning the first two at the 2021 Italian Open and 2022 Canadian Open, but Sabalenka needed just 64 minutes to defeat the teenager 6-4 6-0 in the quarter-finals of March's Indian Wells tournament, during which Gauff did not manage to earn a single break point opportunity.


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We say: Sabalenka to win in three sets

While Gauff may enter Saturday's final having enjoyed a slightly longer recuperation period, Sabalenka thrived in the face of adversity against Keys and was not fazed by the home support as she completed her breathtaking comeback.

Gauff's superior agility and movement will no doubt prove problematic for Sabalenka, but if the second seed can keep the unforced errors count down and harness every inch of her enviable power, we expect the Belarusian to add Grand Slam title number two to her CV and prolong Gauff's wait for a major honour.

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