Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Jun 6, 2022 at 8pm UK

Nuevo Estadio de Malabo

Eq Guinea
2 - 0
Libya

Touhami (51' og.), Bikoro (84' pen.)
Anieboh (25'), Miranda (90+3')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Al-Warfali (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Equatorial Guinea and Libya, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Equatorial Guinea

Last Six:

Last Game: Eq Guinea 2-0 Libya
Monday, June 6 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Next Game: Eq Guinea vs. Botswana
Sunday, September 18 at 11pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ivory Coast	3	3	7
2	Equatorial Guinea	3	1	6
3	Sierra Leone	3	-1	2
4	Algeria	3	-3	1

Libya

Last Six:

Last Game: Eq Guinea 2-0 Libya
Monday, June 6 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Next Game: Tunisia vs. Libya
Sunday, September 18 at 11pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Nigeria	3	3	7
2	Libya	3	3	6
3	Rwanda	3	0	4
4	Equatorial Guinea	3	-6	0

We said: Equatorial Guinea 2-1 Libya

Libya head into Monday's game in fine form, winning three of their last four outings across all competitions. However, standing in their way is an Equatorial Guinea side who have won three of the last four meetings between the teams. We are backing the Nzalang Nacional to make use of their home advantage in this one and come away with all three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 47.12%. A win for Libya had a probability of 29.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Libya win was 1-2 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Equatorial Guinea would win this match.

Result
Equatorial Guinea	Draw	Libya
47.12% ( -0.01)	23.86% ( 0.01)	29.02% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 58.95% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.11% (

-0.05)

42.89% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.71% (

-0.05)

65.29% (

0.06)

Equatorial Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.62% (

-0.03)

18.38% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.48% (

-0.04)

49.52% (

0.05)

Libya Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.22% (

-0.02)

27.78% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.64% (

-0.03)

63.36% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Equatorial Guinea 47.12%

Libya 29.02%

Draw 23.85%

Equatorial Guinea	Draw	Libya
2-1 @ 9.38% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.65% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.32% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.3% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.14% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.24% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.75% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.44% ( -0) Other @ 3.51% Total : 47.12%	1-1 @ 11.07% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.01% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.11% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0) Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.85%	1-2 @ 7.1% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.54% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.19% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.03% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.57% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.79% ( 0) 1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 2.84% Total : 29.02%