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Guinea-Bissau national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 11, 2023 at 5pm UK
Stade Rene Gaillard
Sierra Leone national football team

Guinea-Bissau
2 - 1
Sierra Leone

de Lacerda (35'), Franculino (48')
Mane (73'), Martinho Silva (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Bakayoko (6')
Kakay (23'), Samura (43'), Silva (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Sao Tome 0-1 Guinea-Bissau
Wednesday, June 14 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Sierra Leone 2-3 Nigeria
Sunday, June 18 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Guinea-Bissau 1-1 Sierra Leone

The reverse fixture between both nations ended 2-2, and Guinea-Bissau could fall short in their aim to claim a fourth victory in qualifying for the first time, with Sierra Leone expected to hold out in Bissau. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sierra Leone win with a probability of 40.96%. A win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 32.37% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sierra Leone win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-2 (7.32%). The likeliest Guinea-Bissau win was 1-0 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.

Result
Guinea-BissauDrawSierra Leone
32.37% (0.196 0.2) 26.67% (0.21 0.21) 40.96% (-0.404 -0.4)
Both teams to score 51.32% (-0.59399999999999 -0.59)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.43% (-0.79 -0.79)53.57% (0.793 0.79)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.92% (-0.671 -0.67)75.08% (0.673 0.67)
Guinea-Bissau Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.12% (-0.26300000000001 -0.26)30.88% (0.265 0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.84% (-0.313 -0.31)67.16% (0.316 0.32)
Sierra Leone Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.25% (-0.572 -0.57)25.75% (0.575 0.57)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.31% (-0.782 -0.78)60.69% (0.783 0.78)
Score Analysis
    Guinea-Bissau 32.37%
    Sierra Leone 40.95%
    Draw 26.66%
Guinea-BissauDrawSierra Leone
1-0 @ 9.34% (0.22 0.22)
2-1 @ 7.45%
2-0 @ 5.49% (0.09 0.09)
3-1 @ 2.92% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-0 @ 2.15% (0.02 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.98% (-0.048 -0.05)
Other @ 3.04%
Total : 32.37%
1-1 @ 12.67% (0.09 0.09)
0-0 @ 7.95% (0.244 0.24)
2-2 @ 5.05% (-0.084 -0.08)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 26.66%
0-1 @ 10.78% (0.16 0.16)
1-2 @ 8.6% (-0.077999999999999 -0.08)
0-2 @ 7.32% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.89% (-0.1 -0.1)
0-3 @ 3.31% (-0.061 -0.06)
2-3 @ 2.29% (-0.076 -0.08)
1-4 @ 1.32% (-0.056 -0.06)
0-4 @ 1.12% (-0.04 -0.04)
Other @ 2.33%
Total : 40.95%

How you voted: Guinea-Bissau vs Sierra Leone

Guinea-Bissau
40.0%
Draw
60.0%
Sierra Leone
0.0%
10
Head to Head
Jun 13, 2022 5pm
Group Stage
Sierra Leone
2-2
Guinea-Bissau
Kargbo (77'), Kamara (87')
Jorginho (47', 52')
Gomes (55')
rhs 2.0
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