Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 52.32%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 22.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.97%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (7.49%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.