On a 14-game unbeaten run having beaten some of Europe's elite along the way, failing to win at home to one of the weakest clubs in the competition would be a huge shock, and Lille should get the job done.
It may not be straightforward against a Sturm side riding high under interim boss Saumel though, and the visitors could make this difficult for Les Dogues, even if defeat is likely.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 47.84%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 27.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 0-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
2.34) 
-0.58) 
