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Champions League
Champions League | League Stage
Oct 22, 2024 at 8pm UK
Worthersee Stadion
Sporting Lisbon

Sturm Graz
0 - 2
Sporting Lisbon


Junior Yalcouye (39'), Yardimci (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Santos (23'), Gyokeres (53')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Sturm Graz and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sturm Graz

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Sturm Graz 5-2 Grazer
Saturday, October 19 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Portimonense 1-2 Sporting Lisbon
Friday, October 18 at 8.15pm in Taca de Portugal

We said: Sturm Graz 0-2 Sporting Lisbon

 Despite their poor record in Austria, Sporting did end that barren run by winning away to Sturm last season, and even though they are weakened by injuries, the visitors will enter as strong favourites. With two defeats from two so far, Sturm's European campaign has not got going at all, and despite some fine wins domestically recently, this will be a much sterner test against an unbeaten Sporting. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 60.73%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 18.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.83%) and 0-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.85%), while for a Sturm Graz win it was 2-1 (4.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Sporting Lisbon.

Result
Sturm GrazDrawSporting Lisbon
18.27% (-0.297 -0.3) 21% (-0.39 -0.39) 60.73% (0.689 0.69)
Both teams to score 55.25% (0.769 0.77)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.46% (1.289 1.29)41.54% (-1.287 -1.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.06% (1.293 1.29)63.94% (-1.291 -1.29)
Sturm Graz Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.68% (0.433 0.43)36.31% (-0.431 -0.43)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.9% (0.434 0.43)73.1% (-0.432 -0.43)
Sporting Lisbon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.76% (0.622 0.62)13.24% (-0.619 -0.62)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.99% (1.241 1.24)40.01% (-1.238 -1.24)
Score Analysis
    Sturm Graz 18.27%
    Sporting Lisbon 60.73%
    Draw 21%
Sturm GrazDrawSporting Lisbon
2-1 @ 4.99% (-0.056 -0.06)
1-0 @ 4.87% (-0.228 -0.23)
2-0 @ 2.47% (-0.086 -0.09)
3-2 @ 1.7% (0.04 0.04)
3-1 @ 1.68% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 18.27%
1-1 @ 9.85% (-0.223 -0.22)
2-2 @ 5.04% (0.058 0.06)
0-0 @ 4.81% (-0.285 -0.28)
3-3 @ 1.15% (0.052 0.05)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 21%
1-2 @ 9.96% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-2 @ 9.83% (-0.117 -0.12)
0-1 @ 9.72% (-0.339 -0.34)
1-3 @ 6.71% (0.151 0.15)
0-3 @ 6.62% (0.073 0.07)
2-3 @ 3.4% (0.116 0.12)
1-4 @ 3.39% (0.151 0.15)
0-4 @ 3.35% (0.112 0.11)
2-4 @ 1.72% (0.096 0.1)
1-5 @ 1.37% (0.091 0.09)
0-5 @ 1.35% (0.075 0.08)
Other @ 3.3%
Total : 60.73%

How you voted: Sturm Graz vs Sporting Lisbon

Sturm Graz
10.8%
Draw
13.3%
Sporting Lisbon
75.9%
195
Head to Head
Dec 14, 2023 8pm
Group Stage
Sporting Lisbon
3-0
Sturm Graz
Gyokeres (39'), Inacio (60', 70')

Gorenc Stankovic (75')
> Preview
Sep 21, 2023 8pm
Group Stage
Sturm Graz
1-2
Sporting Lisbon
Boving (58')
Gazibegovic (45'), Affengruber (90')
Gyokeres (76'), Coates (84')
Paulinho (90+4')
> Preview
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