MX23RW : Thursday, November 21 11:05:15| >> :600:374471:374471:
Dortmund logo
Champions League | League Stage
Nov 5, 2024 at 8pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
1 - 0
Sturm Graz

Malen (86')
Malen (75')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Ilzer (44')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Borussia Dortmund and Sturm Graz, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Dortmund 2-1 RB Leipzig
Saturday, November 2 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Sturm Graz 1-1 Rapid Vienna
Saturday, November 2 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Sturm Graz

Considering the injury crisis that Dortmund are currently facing, it would not be surprising if they conceded first. However, Sturm Graz could find it difficult to hold onto a lead given the hosts' formidable record at home. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 59.36%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 19.48%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.28%) and 1-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.83%), while for a Sturm Graz win it was 1-2 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawSturm Graz
59.36% (6.612 6.61) 21.15% (-2.074 -2.07) 19.48% (-4.539 -4.54)
Both teams to score 57% (0.514 0.51)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.69% (3.751 3.75)40.3% (-3.754 -3.75)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.32% (3.761 3.76)62.67% (-3.763 -3.76)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.75% (3.445 3.44)13.25% (-3.448 -3.45)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.97% (6.55 6.55)40.02% (-6.554 -6.55)
Sturm Graz Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.7% (-2.103 -2.1)34.3% (2.099 2.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29% (-2.316 -2.32)71% (2.315 2.32)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 59.36%
    Sturm Graz 19.48%
    Draw 21.15%
Borussia DortmundDrawSturm Graz
2-1 @ 9.93% (0.173 0.17)
2-0 @ 9.28% (0.67 0.67)
1-0 @ 9.18% (-0.437 -0.44)
3-1 @ 6.69% (0.869 0.87)
3-0 @ 6.25% (1.115 1.12)
3-2 @ 3.58% (0.281 0.28)
4-1 @ 3.38% (0.775 0.78)
4-0 @ 3.16% (0.861 0.86)
4-2 @ 1.81% (0.333 0.33)
5-1 @ 1.37% (0.434 0.43)
5-0 @ 1.28% (0.455 0.46)
Other @ 3.44%
Total : 59.36%
1-1 @ 9.83% (-1.072 -1.07)
2-2 @ 5.32% (-0.216 -0.22)
0-0 @ 4.54% (-0.83 -0.83)
3-3 @ 1.28% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 21.15%
1-2 @ 5.26% (-0.921 -0.92)
0-1 @ 4.86% (-1.229 -1.23)
0-2 @ 2.6% (-0.851 -0.85)
2-3 @ 1.9% (-0.193 -0.19)
1-3 @ 1.88% (-0.458 -0.46)
0-3 @ 0.93% (-0.376 -0.38)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 19.48%

How you voted: Dortmund vs Sturm Graz

Borussia Dortmund
86.5%
Draw
9.9%
Sturm Graz
3.6%
223
rhs 2.0
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11Brentford115152222016
12Bournemouth114341515015
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14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
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