MX23RW : Tuesday, January 21 20:07:00| >> :60:669:669:
Red Bull Salzburg
Champions League | Group Stage
Dec 12, 2023 at 8pm UK
Red Bull Arena
Benfica

Salzburg
1 - 3
Benfica

Sucic (57')
Gourna-Douath (10'), Ratkov (51'), Kameri (82'), Schlager (90')
FT(HT: 0-2)
di Maria (32'), Silva (45+1'), Cabral (90+2')
Morato (45+4'), Musa (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Red Bull Salzburg and Benfica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Rapid Vienna 0-1 Salzburg
Saturday, December 9 at 1.30pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Last Game: Benfica 1-1 Farense
Friday, December 8 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Red Bull Salzburg 2-1 Benfica

Benfica have recently faltered in the Primeira Liga, and they do not tend to travel well in Europe. If Salzburg can secure an early lead, that could be enough to break the spirit of a side requiring an unlikely big win to leapfrog their hosts and snatch a Europa League place. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 47.81%. A win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 28.6% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.47%) and 0-2 (7.32%). The likeliest Red Bull Salzburg win was 2-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
Red Bull SalzburgDrawBenfica
28.6% (-0.067 -0.07) 23.6% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03) 47.81% (0.10599999999999 0.11)
Both teams to score 59.55% (0.073 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.05% (0.11799999999999 0.12)41.95% (-0.113 -0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.64% (0.119 0.12)64.36% (-0.114 -0.11)
Red Bull Salzburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.41% (0.015000000000001 0.02)27.6% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.88% (0.015999999999998 0.02)63.12% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.25% (0.089999999999989 0.09)17.75% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.57% (0.15 0.15)48.44% (-0.144 -0.14)
Score Analysis
    Red Bull Salzburg 28.6%
    Benfica 47.81%
    Draw 23.6%
Red Bull SalzburgDrawBenfica
2-1 @ 7.02% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-0 @ 6.31% (-0.031 -0.03)
2-0 @ 4.06% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
3-1 @ 3.01% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 2.6% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 1.74% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-1 @ 0.97% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 28.6%
1-1 @ 10.9% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 6.07% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.9% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.5% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 23.6%
1-2 @ 9.42% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-1 @ 8.47% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-2 @ 7.32% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 5.43% (0.019 0.02)
0-3 @ 4.22% (0.013 0.01)
2-3 @ 3.5% (0.013 0.01)
1-4 @ 2.35% (0.014 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.82% (0.011 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.51% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 3.77%
Total : 47.81%

How you voted: Salzburg vs Benfica

Red Bull Salzburg
53.4%
Draw
12.9%
Benfica
33.6%
116
Head to Head
Sep 20, 2023 8pm
Group Stage
Benfica
0-2
Salzburg

Trubin (2'), Silva (54'), Otamendi (69')
Silva (13')
Simic (15' pen.), Gluh (51')
Gourna-Douath (21'), Baidoo (58'), Simic (67'), Koita (90+1')
rhs 2.0
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