Two sides with contrasting Primeira Liga ambitions this season will meet this weekend when Chaves take on Vitoria de Guimaraes at Estadio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira on Sunday afternoon.
The hosts' primary goal will be to avoid the drop the term as they sit bottom of the table after 25 matches, while the visitors are gunning for a spot in Europe, currently in fifth place in the league standings.
Match preview
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Following a sensational return to the top flight last season when they only narrowly missed out on a top-six finish, Chaves have experienced a major drop-off this season and head into gameweek 26 with just 19 points to their name, including four wins, seven draws and 14 losses.
However, with the bottom half of the table still being very tightly compact, they are just four points from safety, and if they are able to pull off an against-the-odds win here, they could draw level with Estoril Praia, who are currently in the sole relegation playoff spot in the standings.
Flavienses played out a goalless draw away to Gil Vicente in their last match, marking their third consecutive Primeira Liga game without victory, following a 1-1 draw against Estrela at the end of February and a 5-1 defeat at the hands of Arouca at the start of the month.
At home this season, Moreno's side have earned the bulk of their points (12), although over their last six games, they have managed just one win, which was a 2-1 victory over Boavista exactly one month ago.
Based on recent history, the hosts are likely to struggle to take anything from this match. When these sides met in the reverse fixture back in October, Chaves were totally outclassed from the first whistle and slumped to a 5-0 defeat.
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Meanwhile, that victory over this opponent in October stands as Vitoria's biggest win of the season to date and also extended their current winning streak against Chaves to five matches in succession dating back to 2018.
Since then, Os Vimaranenses have maintained good form and will head into Sunday's fixture with 47 points after 25 games, three points behind Braga in the final European qualification spot and eight clear of Moreirense in sixth.
Alvaro Pacheco's side secured their 14th league win of the season last weekend with a 1-0 win over Famalicao at home and are now going for a third consecutive victory having beaten Estoril 3-1 at the start of the month.
The visitors have managed to take 19 points from a possible 36 in away league matches this season. They are currently on a three-match unbeaten streak (W2 D1 L0) and have not suffered an away defeat since the end of January against Gil Vicente.
Unsurprisingly, Vitoria are heavily fancied to claim all three points here, and they will also see this as a golden opportunity to make up ground in the goal difference column against what has been the out-and-out worst defence in the league this season.
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Having managed only their third clean sheet this season last week, it would come as no surprise if Moreno opted for an unchanged backline with Ygor Nogueira, Vasco Fernandes and Junior Pius in front of Hugo Souza in goal.
Hector Hernandez has scored exactly half of the side's 24 league goals this season and will almost certainly continue to lead the line alongside Raphael Guzzo and Joao Correia.
Pacheco is still without the services of his first-choice shot-stopper Bruno Varela due to injury, which should mean that Charles will continue between the sticks for the foreseeable future.
Tomas Ribeiro will be eligible for selection again, having served his one-match suspension against Fama, and he should slot straight back into the three-man defence, with Jorge Fernandes likely to drop to the bench.
Chaves possible starting lineup:
Souza; Pius, Fernandes, Nogueira; Benny, Nwakali, Essugo, Carraca; Guzzo, Hernandez, Correia
Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Charles; Ribeiro, Borevkovic, Villanueva; Gaspar, Handel, T. Silva, Mendes, Mangas; Oliveira, J. Silva
We say: Chaves 1-2 Vitoria de Guimaraes
Vitoria notched up their biggest win of the season against this opponent in the reverse fixture and are carrying solid form into this contest. They have also beaten Chaves in each of their last five encounters, outscoring them 13-1 in that time, and we feel they will add another three points to their tally in this one.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Devesh Jaganath
