Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 51.61%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 24.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.52%), while for a Chaves win it was 0-1 (6.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Moreirense in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Moreirense.
Result | ||
Moreirense | Draw | Chaves |
51.61% ( -0.17) | 24.26% ( 0.08) | 24.13% ( 0.09) |
Both teams to score 53.24% ( -0.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.58% ( -0.23) | 48.42% ( 0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.45% ( -0.22) | 70.55% ( 0.22) |
Moreirense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.25% ( -0.15) | 18.75% ( 0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.86% ( -0.26) | 50.14% ( 0.26) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.52% ( -0.05) | 34.48% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.81% ( -0.05) | 71.19% ( 0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Moreirense | Draw | Chaves |
1-0 @ 10.82% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.06% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.38% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.87% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.25% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 2.12% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.22% Total : 51.61% | 1-1 @ 11.52% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.47% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.26% | 0-1 @ 6.88% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.14% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.67% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.18% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.14% Total : 24.13% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
2 | Porto | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 9 | 24 | 34 |
3 | Benfica | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 8 | 24 | 32 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 20 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 19 |
9 | Casa Pia | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | Nacional | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 12 |
14 | AVS | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 12 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 11 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 9 |
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