CD Ciudad de Lucena and Leganes will do battle on Wednesday with a spot in the Copa del Rey second round on the line.
The hosts have not featured in this competition since 2020, while their visitors dropped out in the second round last season.
Match preview
© Imago
Ciudad de Lucena return to the Copa del Rey on Wednesday for the first time since 2020 with the aim of booking a second-round spot with a historic upset.
Indeed, they last featured in the domestic competition in the 2020-21 season, meeting Sevilla in a first-round tie and dropping out thanks to a 3-0 defeat on home turf.
They head into the upcoming tie in fine form, having moved to the top of their Spanish fifth-tier table with an unbeaten start to the season, earning 20 points from their first eight outings courtesy of six victories alongside two defeats.
On the back of a run of four straight wins, the Andalusian side most recently played out a goalless stalemate at home to San Roque de Lepe to remain top of the table, and they will now bid to extend the unbeaten record in their toughest test yet and take a top-flight scalp to advance in the Copa del Rey.
Their visitors, meanwhile, make the trip on Wednesday aiming to kickstart their cup campaign with a dominant victory.
In their last two Copa del Rey bids, having played in Spain's second tier in each season, Leganes suffered first-round and second-round exits, most recently beating fourth-tier Llerenense in the opening stage last year only to drop out courtesy of a 1-0 defeat to Racing Ferrol.
That campaign was not without success for Los Pepineros, though, as they sealed their return to La Liga by winning the Segunda Division, and they have enjoyed a relatively commendable start to life back in the top flight, earning 11 points from their first 11 games this term.
Following a 3-1 defeat to Atletico Madrid on their return from the October international break, Borja Jimenez's side most recently hosted Celta Vigo on Sunday and put their second victory of the season on the board in style, despite the game remaining goalless until the hour mark, as Diego Garcia, Darko Brasanac and Sergio Gonzalez eventually netted their goals in a 3-0 beating.
Now aiming to improve on their recent Copa del Rey displays, Leganes will look to cruise through to the second round in emphatic fashion on the road on Wednesday.
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Team News
Ciudad de Lucena only made two changes to their starting XI for the weekend's draw with San Roque de Lepe after their fourth victory in a row, and we will see a similar setup on Wednesday, with key man Jairo Morillas continuing to lead the attack.
David Agudo will fight to rejoin him up top for the cup tie, after Joselillo and Alvaro Cascajo flanked Morillas on Sunday.
It is in defence where they have excelled so far this season, and Miguel Cancelo, Jose Manuel Cruz, Ivan Vela and Pedro Morillo are bound to again line up at the back after another clean sheet last time out.
Facing a quick turnaround from Sunday's La Liga win and returning to action against Girona on Saturday, Borja Jimenez should make some rotations to his Leganes team on Wednesday, with Sergio Gonzalez and Darko Brasanac likely to earn starts after scoring off the bench against Celta Vigo.
Miguel de la Fuente may come back in to lead the line after Sebastien Haller started up top at the weekend, while Munir El Haddadi could also be afforded an opportunity from the outset in the front line.
Brasanac could partner Junior Chicco in the midfield, while the likes of Valentin Rosier and Jackson Porozo will hope to earn Jimenez's favour in defence.
CD Ciudad de Lucena possible starting lineup:
Benito; Cancelo, Cruz, Vela, Morillo; Moyano, Fernandez, Fuentes, Cascajo; Morillas, Agudo
Leganes possible starting lineup:
Dmitrovic; Rosier, Gonzalez, Porozo; Hernandez, Brasanac, Chicco, Cruz; El Haddadi, De La Fuente, Rodriguez
We say: CD Ciudad de Lucena 0-3 Leganes
Even with their anticipated rotations, Leganes should have far too much quality all over the pitch for Wednesday's hosts, and we see them progressing with a relatively comfortable win.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leganes win with a probability of 65.89%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for CD Ciudad de Lucena had a probability of 11.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leganes win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (15.02%) and 0-3 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.9%), while for a CD Ciudad de Lucena win it was 1-0 (5.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leganes would win this match.
Sam Varley
