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Flamengo
Copa do Brasil | Semi-Finals | 2nd Leg
Sep 15, 2022 at 1.45am UK
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
Sao Paulo

Flamengo
1 - 0
Sao Paulo

De Arrascaeta (36')
Pereira (65')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Reinaldo (14'), Welington (67')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa do Brasil clash between Flamengo and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Flamengo

Last Six:
Last Game: Goias 1-1 Flamengo
Sunday, September 11 at 11pm in Brasileiro

Sao Paulo

Last Six:
Last Game: Sao Paulo 1-1 Corinthians
Sunday, September 11 at 8pm in Brasileiro

We said: Flamengo 2-0 Sao Paulo (Flamengo advance 5-1 on aggregate)

 Sao Paulo have shown they are a resilient group, particularly in knockout stage matches, but Flamengo seem to have an answer for everything that their opponents may throw at them, and Mengao are a lot stingier defensively compared to Goianiense, so it is hard to foresee Tricolor Paulista pulling off a victory by two or more goals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 56.24%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 20.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.81%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (5.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Flamengo in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Flamengo.

Result
FlamengoDrawSao Paulo
56.24% (0.0039999999999978 0) 22.83% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 20.93% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
Both teams to score 53.7% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.2% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)45.8% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.88% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)68.12% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Flamengo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.91% (0.0030000000000001 0)16.09% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.51% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)45.49% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Sao Paulo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64% (0.0030000000000001 0)36% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.22% (0.0030000000000001 0)72.78% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Score Analysis
    Flamengo 56.24%
    Sao Paulo 20.93%
    Draw 22.83%
FlamengoDrawSao Paulo
1-0 @ 10.58%
2-1 @ 9.88%
2-0 @ 9.67%
3-1 @ 6.01% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-0 @ 5.89%
3-2 @ 3.07% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 2.75%
4-0 @ 2.69%
4-2 @ 1.4% (0.0010000000000001 0)
5-1 @ 1%
5-0 @ 0.98%
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 56.24%
1-1 @ 10.81%
0-0 @ 5.79% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-2 @ 5.05%
3-3 @ 1.05%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 22.83%
0-1 @ 5.92% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-2 @ 5.52%
0-2 @ 3.02%
1-3 @ 1.88%
2-3 @ 1.72%
0-3 @ 1.03%
Other @ 1.83%
Total : 20.93%

How you voted: Flamengo vs Sao Paulo

Flamengo
87.5%
Draw
12.5%
Sao Paulo
0.0%
8
Head to Head
Aug 25, 2022 1.30am
Sao Paulo
1-3
Flamengo
Nestor (79')
Gomes (13'), Barbosa (68'), Everton (90+4')
Everton (90+4')
Aug 7, 2022 12.30am
Sao Paulo
0-2
Flamengo

Maia (36'), Galoppo (59')
Lazaro (7'), Barbosa (90+5')
Souza (24'), Diego (50')
Apr 17, 2022 8pm
Flamengo
3-1
Sao Paulo
Barbosa (25'), Isla (69'), De Arrascaeta (72')
Barbosa (17'), Gomes (45')
Calleri (41')
Rafinha (17'), Maia (24'), Diego (36'), Anderson (76'), Reinaldo (80'), Pele (90+1')
Nov 14, 2021 7pm
Sao Paulo
0-4
Flamengo

Shaylon (87')
Calleri (10')
Barbosa (1'), Henrique (4'), Michael (42', 55')
Matheuzinho (22')
Jul 25, 2021 8pm
Flamengo
5-1
Sao Paulo
Henrique (70', 72', 77'), Henrique (86'), Welington (90+2' og.)
Caio (53'), Arao (54'), Luis (62')
Arboleda (48')
Welington (32'), Reinaldo (40'), Marquinhos (62'), Rigoni (83'), Vinicius (85'), Benitez (90+10'), Benitez (90+10')
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