Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 30, 2024 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho
Fluminense3 - 2Alianza Lima
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Fluminense 2-0 Sampaio Correa
Wednesday, May 22 at 11pm in Copa do Brasil
Wednesday, May 22 at 11pm in Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Alianza Lima 1-1 Colo-Colo
Thursday, May 16 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Thursday, May 16 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
We said: Fluminense 2-0 Alianza Lima
Neither side is in top form on the domestic scene, but Flu's home advantage and long unbeaten record in this competition should see them cruise to victory. Only a point would keep Alianza's continental campaign alive, but they may be staring at a group-stage exit. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 65.86%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 14.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.35%), while for an Alianza Lima win it was 0-1 (4.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fluminense | Draw | Alianza Lima |
65.86% ( -0.04) | 19.71% ( 0.02) | 14.43% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 50.97% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
