MX23RW : Tuesday, January 7 08:24:11| >> :60:818:818:
Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Aug 11, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Presidente Juan Domingo Peron

Racing
3 - 0
Atletico Nacional

Martinez (28'), Ojeda (50'), Aguirre (56' og.)
Piovi (10'), Javier Rubio (25'), Gomez (31')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Zapata (27')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Libertadores clash between Racing Club and Atletico Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Racing Club

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Atletico Nacional 4-2 Racing
Friday, August 4 at 1am in Copa Libertadores

Atletico Nacional

All competitions
Last Game: Atletico Nacional 4-2 Racing
Friday, August 4 at 1am in Copa Libertadores

We said: Racing Club 3-2 Atletico Nacional (Atletico Nacional win 6-5 on aggregate)

 Thanks to their late penalties last week, Racing Club do have a lifeline heading into the second leg with home advantage, and while we do see them causing the visitors problems, we back Atletico Nacional to score a few of their own and just come out on top on aggregate, even if they do not prevail on the night in Buenos Aires. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing Club win with a probability of 55.22%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 20.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Racing Club win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.44%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for an Atletico Nacional win it was 0-1 (6.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Racing Club would win this match.

Result
Racing ClubDrawAtletico Nacional
55.22% (-1.477 -1.48) 24.17% (-0.11 -0.11) 20.61% (1.589 1.59)
Both teams to score 49.1% (2.702 2.7)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.31% (2.332 2.33)51.69% (-2.331 -2.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.53% (1.99 1.99)73.47% (-1.989 -1.99)
Racing Club Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.4% (0.322 0.32)18.6% (-0.322 -0.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.11% (0.537 0.54)49.89% (-0.536 -0.54)
Atletico Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.31% (3.091 3.09)39.68% (-3.091 -3.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.64% (2.74 2.74)76.36% (-2.74 -2.74)
Score Analysis
    Racing Club 55.22%
    Atletico Nacional 20.61%
    Draw 24.16%
Racing ClubDrawAtletico Nacional
1-0 @ 12.41% (-1.06 -1.06)
2-0 @ 10.44% (-0.77 -0.77)
2-1 @ 9.65% (0.124 0.12)
3-0 @ 5.85% (-0.371 -0.37)
3-1 @ 5.41% (0.123 0.12)
3-2 @ 2.5% (0.255 0.26)
4-0 @ 2.46% (-0.13 -0.13)
4-1 @ 2.28% (0.074 0.07)
4-2 @ 1.05% (0.117 0.12)
Other @ 3.17%
Total : 55.22%
1-1 @ 11.47% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
0-0 @ 7.38% (-0.712 -0.71)
2-2 @ 4.46% (0.414 0.41)
Other @ 0.85%
Total : 24.16%
0-1 @ 6.82% (-0.051 -0.05)
1-2 @ 5.3% (0.444 0.44)
0-2 @ 3.15% (0.235 0.24)
1-3 @ 1.63% (0.259 0.26)
2-3 @ 1.37% (0.229 0.23)
0-3 @ 0.97% (0.145 0.15)
Other @ 1.35%
Total : 20.61%

Head to Head
Aug 4, 2023 1am
Round of 16 1st Leg
Atletico Nacional
4-2
Racing
Zapata (34'), Duque (61'), Cantera (83', 90+5')
Castro (9'), Deossa (45+4'), Ocampo (77'), Aguirre (79'), Zapata (87'), Andres Perea Abonce (90+2')
Piovi (87' pen., 90+4')
Pillud (60'), Hauche (63'), Martirena (70')
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