Sunday will feature a battle between one side looking to climb into the top spot of League One, with the other aiming to move out of last place as Crewe Alexandra host Wigan Athletic at Gresty Road.

The Latics come into this contest unbeaten in 12 consecutive matches played in all competitions, two points behind Rotherham for first with a game in hand, while The Alex are sitting in dead last and seven points below the relegation line.

Match preview

Crewe Alexandra manager David Artell on August 24, 2021 © Reuters

Entering their second last match of the year, Crewe Alexandra are much improved, winning three of their previous four home games played in all competitions, but they still have a lot of ground to make up if they are to remain in the league beyond this campaign.

Last Saturday, it was a fairly even match statistically versus Sheffield Wednesday, although the Railwaymen came up on the short end of a 2-0 scoreline after winning their three previous encounters played in Cheshire by that same score.

Manager David Artell has reiterated to his squad that there is still plenty of room for improvement, adding that they did not do enough to test Owls goalkeeper Bailey Peacock-Farrell, despite moving the ball around well throughout the match.

That result was the first time they had lost a match by more than a single goal since a 2-0 defeat to Bolton on November 12.

The Railwaymen have struggled to get themselves out of sticky situations all year long, losing all of their league fixtures in which they were trailing at the half.

They have conceded the second-most goals in the league thus far (38), although before their defeat last weekend, The Alex had shown a lot more composure at the back, allowing no more than two shots on target in each of their previous three home games and failing to concede a goal in four consecutive matches played at Gresty Road in all competitions.

Wigan Athletic manager Leam Richardson on October 19, 2021 © Reuters

Wigan have not made it easy on themselves, but in the end, the side from Greater Manchester continue to get the job done, edging Oxford United 3-2 in their previous fixture, their third victory by a single goal in their last four league games.

There is no shortage of drama when you see them play, which has to be thrilling for the fans, though it might give manager Leam Richardson a few unnecessary headaches, with his team squandering a 1-0 lead in every one of their previous four matches played in all competitions, but coming out on top on three occasions, with the other result ending in a 1-1 draw against Ipswich Town.

As they reach the midway point of this domestic campaign, there has been tremendous growth from where this team were a season ago, particularly when it comes to defending, conceding only 20 goals to this point of 2021-22, after allowing 77 in their last campaign.

With Phoenix 2021 Limited officially taking over the operations of this team earlier this year, there have been fewer off-field distractions for this club, allowing them to focus on the most important thing, winning matches.

Technically speaking, one area that could use a bit of work is their precision and ball movement, possessing a pass accuracy of 70% or lower in each of their previous two encounters.

This group are certainly not timid when it comes to throwing in challenges, having committed 19 fouls versus Oxford and giving up 10 or more free kicks in every one of their last five games played.

Crewe Alexandra League One form:

Crewe Alexandra form (all competitions):

Wigan Athletic League One form:

Wigan Athletic form (all competitions):

Team News

Wigan Athletic's James McClean celebrates scoring their second goal on October 16, 2021 © Reuters

After collecting two clean sheets in his previous two matches played at home, Crewe goalkeeper Dave Richards conceded twice on five shots versus Sheffield Wednesday.

Recently the club announced that they had loaned midfielder Josh Lundstram to Solihull Moors in the fifth tier of English football, while striker Ben Knight, currently on loan from Manchester City, will miss three to four weeks after suffering a knock in training before their matchup against The Owls.

Mikael Mandron scored twice from the penalty spot in their last victory, 2-0 against Lincoln City, as he leads the team with five domestically, one more than Chris Long and twice as many as Chris Porter.

Will Keane, who leads Wigan in goals this season, scored his 10th of the year in their victory against Oxford, moving him all alone in fourth in the League One standings, one back of Ross Stewart, Joe Ironside and Macauley Bonne for third.

Joe Bennett and Gavin Massey drew into the starting lineup last weekend, replacing Tom Pearce and Gwion Edwards, with Tendayi Darikwa collecting his 50th career cap for the club.

Max Power scored his second of the campaign last Saturday, while James McClean notched the winner, his sixth this season, putting him two back of Callum Lang for second on the team.

Crewe Alexandra possible starting lineup:
Richards; Ainley, Offord, Sass-Davies, Ramsay, Adebisi; Lowery, Murphy, Finney; Porter, Mandron

Wigan Athletic possible starting lineup:
Amos; Pearce, Tilt, Whatmough, Darikwa; Naylor, Power; McClean, Lang, Massey; Keane

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We say: Crewe Alexandra 2-3 Wigan Athletic

Crewe are more than comfortable playing at home, but their last four shutouts have come against teams (Wolves U-21, Gillingham, Doncaster and Lincoln City) who are far less clinical in the attacking zone than The Latics.

Wigan tend to allow at least one or two good scoring opportunities each game, however, their firepower has carried them through, and we expect that to be the case again this weekend.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wigan Athletic win with a probability of 62.48%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 15.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wigan Athletic win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.76%) and 1-2 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.3%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 1-0 (5.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Wigan Athletic in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Wigan Athletic.