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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 70.72%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 12.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 3-0 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.55%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 1-2 (3.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Utrecht | Draw | PEC Zwolle |
70.72% ( -0.42) | 16.67% ( 0.21) | 12.61% ( 0.21) |
Both teams to score 56.94% ( -0.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.32% ( -0.52) | 32.67% ( 0.52) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.65% ( -0.6) | 54.35% ( 0.6) |
FC Utrecht Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.78% ( -0.22) | 8.21% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
71.26% ( -0.55) | 28.74% ( 0.54) |
PEC Zwolle Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.04% ( -0.05) | 37.96% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.27% ( -0.04) | 74.73% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
FC Utrecht | Draw | PEC Zwolle |
2-0 @ 9.74% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 8.11% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 7.86% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 7.79% ( 0.13) 4-0 @ 5.07% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 4.91% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 3.81% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 2.54% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 2.46% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.04) 5-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.03) 6-0 @ 1.06% ( -0.04) 6-1 @ 1.02% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.36% Total : 70.72% | 1-1 @ 7.55% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 4.57% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 3.12% ( 0.09) 3-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.21% Total : 16.67% | 1-2 @ 3.66% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 3.02% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.48% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.81% Total : 12.61% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
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