Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 45.59%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 27.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.86%) and 2-1 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.8%), while for a Heracles win it was 0-1 (9.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.