We said: Willem II 0-2 AZ Alkmaar
Willem have failed to show much chance of picking up points this season, especially with a poor record in front of goal particularly in recent weeks, which is likely to continue on Sunday.
Alkmaar will be determined to bounce back after a difficult start to March, and they will feel playing a side threatened by relegation is a good opportunity to do so.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 59.19%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 18.59%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.46%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a Willem II win it was 1-0 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.