Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 66.56%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 15.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.32%) and 0-1 (7.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.24%), while for a Willem II win it was 2-1 (4.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.