We believe that Lech Poznan will edge this affair due to the inactivity of Bodo/Glimt in competitive fixtures, as the first leg showed signs of a side struggling to pick up where they left off.
We think that this game will be competitive as both sides are evenly matched, but Lech Poznan will use their home crowd to their advantage and progress into the next round of the Europa Conference League.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 38.57%. A win for Bodo/Glimt had a probability of 37.86% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.7%) and 2-0 (5.34%). The likeliest Bodo/Glimt win was 1-2 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lech Poznan in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lech Poznan.
0.16) 
-0.19) 
