We said: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1-2 Portugal
Portugal are unlikely to be at full-strength for this match, but Martinez has such a talented squad, and the players that come in will be desperate to impress the manager. Bosnia-Herzegovina are capable of picking up a positive result here, but we are backing the visitors to shade Monday's contest.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 43.78%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Bosnia-Herzegovina had a probability of 28.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.66%) and 1-2 (8.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.05%), while for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win it was 1-0 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.
-0.17) 
0.06) 
