Despite taking confidence from Wednesday's friendly win over Gibraltar, Malta will be fully aware that Tuesday's opponents represent a significant step up in quality.
North Macedonia claimed a narrow victory in the previous meeting between the two nations, and we think that they will draw upon that experience to clinch all three points at the Ta'Qali National Stadium.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 54.38%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Malta had a probability of 21.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.93%) and 1-2 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.41%), while for a Malta win it was 1-0 (6.7%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for North Macedonia in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for North Macedonia.
-0.04) 
0.11) 
