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FA Cup

Bristol Rovers
FA Cup | First Round
Nov 5, 2022 at 3pm UK
Memorial Stadium
Rochdale

Bristol Rovers
1 - 0
Rochdale

Sinclair (65')
FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Bristol Rovers and Rochdale, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bristol Rovers

All competitions
Last Game: Derby 4-2 Bristol Rovers
Saturday, October 29 at 3pm in League One

Rochdale

All competitions
Last Game: Walsall 1-0 Rochdale
Saturday, October 29 at 3pm in League Two

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol Rovers win with a probability of 52.67%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 24.14% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bristol Rovers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 1-2 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bristol Rovers would win this match.

Result
Bristol RoversDrawRochdale
52.67% (0.098999999999997 0.1)23.18% (-0.016000000000002 -0.02)24.14% (-0.084 -0.08)
Both teams to score 56.78% (-0.037999999999997 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.27% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)43.73% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.88% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)66.12% (0.0050000000000097 0.01)
Bristol Rovers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.39% (0.033000000000001 0.03)16.6% (-0.035 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.58% (0.061 0.06)46.42% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)
Rochdale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.08% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)31.92% (0.071999999999999 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.63% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)68.37% (0.080999999999989 0.08)
Score Analysis
    Bristol Rovers 52.67%
    Rochdale 24.14%
    Draw 23.18%
Bristol RoversDrawRochdale
2-1 @ 9.76% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
1-0 @ 9.52% (0.013 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.54% (0.020999999999999 0.02)
3-1 @ 5.84% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.11% (0.019 0.02)
3-2 @ 3.33% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 2.62% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.3% (0.011 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.5% (0.0010000000000001 0)
5-1 @ 0.94% (0.003 0)
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 52.67%
1-1 @ 10.86% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.57% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.3% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1.27% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 23.18%
1-2 @ 6.21% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-1 @ 6.05% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-2 @ 3.46% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.36% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.12% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.32% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.63%
Total : 24.14%

How you voted: Bristol Rovers vs Rochdale

Bristol Rovers
64.7%
Draw
29.4%
Rochdale
5.9%
17
Head to Head
Apr 30, 2022 3pm
Rochdale
3-4
Bristol Rovers
Charman (11', 17'), O'Keeffe (60')
Keohane (58'), Taylor (69'), O'Keeffe (83'), Charman (85')
Finley (54'), Collins (66', 89'), Anderson (90+5')
Anderson (39')
Coutts (90+8')
Dec 11, 2021 3pm
Bristol Rovers
4-2
Rochdale
Evans (10'), Collins (51', 89'), Anderson (84')
Beesley (60', 66')
Beesley (64')
Jan 30, 2021 3pm
Bristol Rovers
1-2
Rochdale
Leahy (34')
Newby (16', 64')
Dooley (75')
Oct 31, 2020 3pm
Rochdale
1-1
Bristol Rovers
Newby (25')
Rathbone (50'), Lund (81'), O'Connell (90')
Nicholson (9')
Grant (34')
Mar 28, 2020 3pm
Bristol Rovers
P-P
Rochdale